AskJaycee # 5: Pwede Na Ba Akong Bumili ng JFC Shares?

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Pwede Na Ba Akong Bumili ng JFC Shares?

“Sir, long-term investor ako. Pwede ko bang bilhin si JFC?”

Halos ganito ang porma ng mga tanong na nare-receive ko lately hindi lang from our clients at Equilyst Analytics kundi pati na rin sa social media.

I’d like to share my answer with you. Try ko na lang na i-Taglish para mas marami ang pwedeng makasunod.

I understand that the popular answer sa mga ganitong tanong, basta nakadugtong ang phrase na “long-term”, ay “YES”.

“Yes, bilhin mo lang basta’t kaya mong magtiis ng 5 to 10 years (or forever).”
“Yes, babawi din ang price niyan.”
“Yes, index stock naman yan. Blue-chip yan.”

Hindi dapat ganun. I’m still conservative if I say it’s a shallow reasoning.

Wala sa short-term or long-term profiling ng tao ang buyability ng stock.

Unang-una, kahit pa iyang stock na iyan ang pinaka-undervalued sa PSEi or sa sector na kinabibilangan nito, regardless kahit ano pang valuation model ang ginamit mo, bakit mo bibilhin kung more than likely to continue pa ang pagbaba ng share price nito?

May data-driven method naman na pang-check kung more than likely to continue ang trend (downtrend or uptrend) ng isang stock.

JFC - Daily Chart 1 - 11.22.2019

From P320sh, bumaba si JFC sa P270sh. Then, from P270sh, bumaba sa P210sh. Today, it’s at P195 apiece.

When it dropped from P320sh to P270sh, dun pa lang more than likely to continue na ang downtrend nito.

Kung magiging honest ka sa nararamdaman mo, masayang-masaya ka ba na bumili ka near P270sh ngayong nakita mong nasa P195.00 na ito, o you snapped your fingers and said, “Pambihira. Sino ba kasi ang nagpauso nitong ‘buy the dips’ na ‘to? Sino bang nagpauso nitong buy lang ng buy basta below the Buy Below Price ang price hanggat naka-raise ang buy rating?”

As of today’s trading, the downtrend is more than likely to re-test the support near P180.00. At kapag mas lumapit pa sa P180 ang price, mas tumataas ang chance na pati P150 ay mairi-re-test.

Hanggat wala pang signs na umay na umay na sa pagbebenta itong mga significant sellers, hindi natin dapat sinasalo ang dips. Pwede kang maging kontra-bida sa advice na ‘to kung meron kang at least 1 billion pesos. You can, somehow, influence the market sentiment kung big player ka. Pero kung katulad kita na relatively “barya-manin” lang, maging mas matalinong investor tayo dapat. Kung puro hunch lang ang gagamitin mo sa decision, baka mapapa-hashtag #HopeAndPray ka na lang sooner or later.

Based on our Evergreen Strategy, wala pang confirmed buy signal si JFC.

Yung 10SMACD combo ay bearish. Yung 4 elements ng Momentum Power Indicator ko ay bearish din.

Sinasang-ayunan din ng DMI chart yung bearishness ni JFC. The -DMI is hovering the +DMI, and ADX is higher than 25 points. Bearish divergence ang nangyayari between the -DMI and the +DMI. Ibig sabihin niyan, hindi humihina ang downtrend momentum, bagkus ay lumalakas pa nga.

Take a look at my Trade-Volume Distribution chart. The dominant range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. Ibig sabihin nito ay hindi pa exhausted magbenta yung mga decided at significant sellers.

Now, if you’ll look at my True Market Sentiment charts ng daily, weekly, and monthly, lahat sila anemic pa. Ibig sabihin, naka-homecourt advantage pa, so to speak, ang mga bears.

JFC - True Market Sentiment EOD - 11.22.2019

JFC - True Market Sentiment WTD - 11.22.2019JFC - True Market Sentiment MTD - 11.22.2019

You might say, “Eh, Sir, kung sa BONUS INFO mo sa mga True Market Sentiment Charts mo ng daily, weekly, at monthly ay 40 to 50 percent ng participants ay walang ginawa kundi bumili (hindi sila nagbenta ni isang piraso ng share ni JFC), bakit hindi tayo makigaya-gaya sa kanila?”

Di porke ginagawa nila yun ay kagaya-gaya na sila. Di hamak na mas malaki ang total turnover value ng mga sellers kaysa sa mga buyers. That’s the reason why sinabi ko na kung wala kang P1 billion na pangontra sa pagbebenta ng mga decided sellers, wag ka munang magtapang-tapangan dahil walang magagawa yung “barya” natin.

Ang pinakamahusay na gawin ngayon ay be on a wait-and-see mode muna kay JFC. Ilagay mo ito sa WATCHLIST mo pero huwag muna sa PORTFOLIO mo.

“Eh, Sir, paano kung nasa portfolio ko na?”

If nasa portfolio mo na, calculate your trailing stop. Pwede mong gamitin itong trailing stop calculator ko: https://www.equilyst.com/trailing-stop-calculator/

Kung tinamaan ang trailing stop mo, ibig sabihin niyan matagal mo nang kinakarga-karga ang isang stock na matagal mo na pala dapat na naibinenta.

Your trailing does 3 letter Ps. It PRESERVES your capital, PROTECTS your gains, and PREVENTS unbearable losses.

So, kelan dapat bibilhin si JFC?

Kapag bullish na ang 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator.

Again, wala sa pagiging short-term or long-term investor ang buyability ng isang stock.

May long-term investing portfolio ako. Kahit pa hindi ko kakailanganin for the next 50 years ang perang nasa portfolio ko, kung nakikita ko namang matindi pa ang pagbaba ng price, hindi mo ako mapapa-top up. Baka nga bawasan ko pa ang percentage of risk na initially kong inapply sa pagcalculate ng trailing stop ko if more than likely to continue ang downtrend.

I hope you got some value from my post. At kung gusto mo pa ring ipagpatuloy ang “buy the dips” mentality regardless whether the downtrend is more than likely to continue or not, nasa sa iyo na yun. Ginawa ko na ang part ko sa pag-e-educate.

Those who agree with my logic need no further explanation but no explanation is enough for those who disagree.

If you want to develop this kind of logic and reasoning also, Equilyst Analytics has two services for you. I recommend that you subscribe to both the online stock market course and the subscription service.

✅ Stock Market Course: https://equilyst.com/evergreen/
✅ Subscription: https://equilyst.com/subscribe/

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

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