I was able to enter a new position in DA VINCI CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC (DAVIN) a day before the last trading day of 2015. What gave me the confidence to play this speculative stock? First, being on a holiday, I had free time and free cash. Second, the support at 1.59 to 1.60 was re-tested many times and it proved to be a resilient support line. So I thought, “Hmm, no one wants to sell below 1.60.” Other than that, I spotted cross-overs with my SMAs (won’t share my settings in this public post). So I pulled the trigger and the rest was history.
In the Stock Signals, I always tell my clients to only “trade at your free time with your free cash”. Aside from that, you plot your entry, target, and stop-loss price points, with your reward-to-risk ratio, before you enter a new position in any stock. Again, again, and again, you do all these BEFORE you enter a new position. It goes without saying that there’s no sense wondering about all these when the stock is already in your portfolio. Oh yes, this may sound elementary, but many buy a stock first before they figure out if they did the right thing or not.
[Let’s do some show of hands for those who are guilty.]
[Move on, Jaycee. No one wants to raise a hand.]
Anyway, let’s have a review of foreign investors’ activities. Apparently, it didn’t make sense for foreign fundies to accumulate more of this stock in the first 3 quarters of 2015 until they had a change of mind in 4Q2015. You can read the chart below.
Well, obviously, by looking at the chart, you can tell to which month we can attribute that tall and green candlestick of 4Q2015. Foreign fundies were Santa-like in their buying-spree for DAVIN in December 2015.
Do you see those two green candlesticks of 2013 and 2016? Oh yes, 2016 is about to overtake the 2013 Net Foreign Buying score. At this early? Hmm, someone’s brewing some coffee.
Last week, COL, ANGPING, and SBSEC were the top 3 movers of this speculative stock. All of which closed the week as net buyers. But who are this week’s top movers of this stock? Log in to our private forum if you’re my client and request for that data.
Here’s the activity of online foreign brokers last week. See, I told you in my other write-ups that online foreign brokers’ transactions do not necessarily translate Net Foreign Buying/(Selling). I’m presenting this data as an additional source to find out who’s moving who. Got it? Perfect!
Now, let’s talk about what’s currently happening on DAVIN. It is about to breach the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. In some of my notes, I wrote that, a confirmed reversal (bullish or bearish) can be spotted once the stock breaks through the 50% of Fibo. DAVIN’s next challenge is to maintain its position above 2.87. The question is, are there more traders who are willing to buy above 2.87? Won’t they translate this breaking above 50% of Fibo as an opportunity to rake in profits, and let this stock dive near, or even below, 2.45 so they could re-enter a new position? What’s your speculation?
Resistance is now at 3.26. This bullishness is accompanied with volume, by the way. If you’ve been trading for a while now, you should know by now the interdependence between volume and uptrend price movement.
Alright, I should stop talking now. I might spill some beans that are exclusive to my Stock Signals clients.
On a final note, let me just give you a rundown of what happened today. Please read my notes below.
If you’d like to know more about this stock, subscribe to the Stock Signals while the discounted rates are available.
As of January 20, 2016, at 03:30PM GMT+8, DAVIN ranged between PHP2.40 and PHP2.76.
DAVIN’s last price is PHP2.68 with a Percentage Change of 11.2% or PHP0.27.
MACD, at 0.21, shows that bias is still on the upside.
MACD is trending below the signal line.
RSI, at 81.43, shows that DAVIN is overbought.
Stochastic, at 95.1, shows that DAVIN is overbought.
DAVIN moves above its 5-day EMA. That signifies bullishness on a short-term range.
With a volatility of 107.05% and with its last price of 2.68, DAVIN has:
= 68% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 5.55, and 32% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 95% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 8.42, and 5% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 99% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 11.29, and 1% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months.
Note: These 68%, 95%, and 99% are constant percentages of probabilities that a price range might be hit after 12 months based on one standard deviation, two standard deviations, and three standard deviations, respectively. Be informed that we’re talking about possibilities and not certainties since implied volatility is not an exact science. While implied volatility helps you get a forecast of a stock’s possible price range after a certain time period, it doesn’t tell you the exact direction (trend) of the stock from here on until the end of the specified time period.
As of January 20, 2016, at 03:30PM GMT+8, volume is 256.62% of the previous trading day.
Total Trade Amount on January 20, 2016: PHP45,664,880.00
All brokers’ buy average as of January 20, 2016: PHP2.60
All brokers’ buy average as of January 20, 2016: PHP2.61
Note: Below are FOREIGN BROKERS’ numbers only. There’s a separate chart where you’ll find FOREIGN INVESTORS’ Net Foreign Buying or Selling.
As of January 20, 2016, 3 out of 11 active online foreign brokers traded DAVIN.
Online foreign brokers’ Buy Average: PHP2.60
Online foreign brokers’ Sell Average: PHP2.67
Number of net buyers among the participating online foreign brokers: 2 out of 3
HDI bought the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP739,660.00
HDI sold the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP353,020.00
On a 30-day trading period, DAVIN is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP22,825,080.00.
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