$SMPH Hits 21.70, What Should I Do Now?


I really don’t answer analysis requests sent via email. I only discuss with my clients in the Stock Signals’ private forum. But due to several requests from Truly Rich Club (TRC) members to post my analysis for SM PRIME HOLDINGS ($SMPH), I’ll just post my reply for public access. According to the requesting individuals, they have hit their Target Selling Price of 21.70 and they are curious to know whether they should really sell at 21.70 or not.

The common question I received today is, “Sir, $SMPH has hit TRC’s target price of 21.70. Tataas pa ba?” (“Will it still continue to go up?”)

First off, whether the stock’s price will go down or up, that shouldn’t be your first concern. Your first concern should be your trade setup, your trading range. If your only concern is the probability of the price’s direction, but you don’t have a clear game plan in mind, until when will you ask “Sir, tataas pa ba?” You cannot afford to ask that question till kingdom come.

What should be done then?

Let’s start with the obvious. Stick to your game plan in TRC. What for did you subscribe to TRC if you’re having  second thoughts to what you’re paying for?

Now, if you’re just curious about my opinion because of several testimonials of former TRC members who are now my clients, here’s my friendly advice. Learn how to plot the support and resistance ranges of a stock. That’s the first step. That’s the basic arsenal that you need to carry with you if you’d like to practice a self-directed investing or trading. Even my clients in the Stock Signals are not spoon-fed. If any of them ask, “Sir, what can you say about this stock? Any insights?”, I’d answer back, “What has caught your interest with this stock? Could you tell me what you know about this stock?” I respond that way because I’d like to reinforce critical thinking. I promote conversation, not a question-and-answer portion. If you’d like to become a better trader, you can’t be on the asking-end forever.

Let’s talk about $SMPH.

If you’d like to see $SMPH’s ascent to continue, first, it must pierce the resistance at 21.85. It should take that out with volume (preferably heavier than the previous trading days’ volume). Otherwise, $SMPH will just re-visit the previous support zones. See what I’ve plotted below.

My 3 SMAs intersect at 21.10. If you’d like to set trailing stops (21.85, 22.40, 22.85), it’s up to you. You should be fine for as long as $SMPH doesn’t go below 21.10.


While $SMPH’s volume isn’t that low, I prefer to see it print daily volumes above its 30-day volume average. An ascent not coupled by an increasing volume can be dangerous.

SM PRIME HOLDINGS - 30-day Volume Average

As far as foreign flow is concerned, $SMPH is still printing daily Net Foreign Buying scores. But just as how you see it on the chart, those previous Net Foreign Selling bars (red) are still larger than the green ones that followed them. What does that mean? The funds that foreign investors had vomited in the past are not completely being returned yet. What do foreign investors wait for then? I don’t know. Maybe they’re waiting for the volume to pick up above the 30-day volume average, too. Have you checked the recent company disclosures? $SMPH will conduct its Investors’ and Analysts’ Briefing on April 12, 2016. Surely, foreign investors are waiting for the full-year 2015 and 1Q2016 earnings reports. Don’t we, too?

SM PRIME HOLDINGS - Foreign Flows - March 1-10, 2016

Would you like to know who among the 11 online foreign brokers is a net buyer or seller? See the table below.

SM PRIME HOLDINGS - Online Foreign Transactions - March 10, 2016

How do you measure the Top 10 Players’ sentiment of a stock? I have a method in place. This calculator that generated this chart (and all these charts in this post, actually) is made available to my clients (Plus and Unlimited Plan subscribers only). Basing it on their Net Amount, 6 out of 10 are bearish on $SMPH. Counting the ones with a higher Buy Average than  Sell Average, you’ll get a score of 6 out 10, too.

The Top 10 Players’ Buy Average is at 21.40. Their Sell Average is at 21.30.

I used data from March 1 to 10, 2016 for this Top 10 Players chart.

SM PRIME HOLDINGS - Top 10 Players - March 1-10, 2016

Would you like to know where was volume printed the most in today’s trading? See my Price-Volume Distribution chart below. Obviously, bulk of the volume is made near the upper-end of the chart. Hence, it’s bullish. The price on the upper end represents the intraday high. The price at the very bottom is the intraday low. The more volume gets printed towards the upper-end of the chart, the more confident traders are in buying the stock up. The opposite is true when most volume is printed towards the south.

SM PRIME HOLDINGS - Price-Volume Distribution - March 10, 2016

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Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee De Guzman

I have helped thousands of Filipinos trade independently and invest profitably through the Equilyst Analytics, Inc. I have also helped hundreds of SMEs and Fortune 500 companies build and boost their online presence through iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. Read my About Me page.
Jaycee De Guzman

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