I am going to start posting my analysis and insights about a randomly-picked stock everyday starting today. Please let me know in the comments section of this article if you think my posts are helpful so I know if it makes sense for me to continue or not.
From December 11, 2017 to February 8, 2018, BLOOM ranged between P10.70 and P13.54. BLOOM’s last price is PHP13.46 with a percentage change of 5.16% or PHP0.66.
If I will follow my book-ish formula in computing three levels of support and resistance, I will get PHP12.44 as Support Level 2 and PHP14.04 as Resistance Level 2.
But I’d like to show you the support and resistance levels I got when I plotted BLOOM’s monthly chart. Medium-term resistance is near 15.60 and short-term support is near 12.08.
MACD, at 0.44, shows that bias is still on the upside. RSI, at 72.07, shows that BLOOM is overbought. Stochastic, at 84.48, shows that BLOOM is overbought. But these values represent the book-ish way of interpreting these indicators. I suggest you make an investment decision based on your current position and risk tolerance.
BLOOM moves above its 5-day EMA. That signifies bullishness on a short-term range.
With a volatility of 53.50% and with its last price of 13.46, BLOOM has:
= 68% chance of ranging between 6.26 to 20.66, and 32% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 95% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 27.86, and 5% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 99% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 35.06, and 1% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months.
Note: These 68%, 95%, and 99% are constant percentages of probabilities that a price range might be hit after 12 months based on one, two, and three standard deviations, respectively. Be informed that we’re talking about possibilities and not certainties since historical or statistical volatility is not an exact science. While statistical volatility helps you get a forecast of a stock’s possible price range after a certain time period, it doesn’t tell you the exact direction (trend) of the stock from here on until the end of the specified time period.
As of February 8, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume is 188.56% of the previous trading day.
Total Trade Amount from Dec-11-2017 to Feb-08-2018: PHP5,520,366,322.00
All brokers’ buy average from December 11, 2017 to February 8, 2018: PHP11.60
All brokers’ buy average from December 11, 2017 to February 8, 2018: PHP11.84
Note: Below are FOREIGN BROKERS’ numbers only. There’s a separate chart where you’ll find FOREIGN INVESTORS’ Net Foreign Buying or Selling.
From December 11, 2017 to February 8, 2018, 11 out of 11 active online foreign brokers traded BLOOM.
- Online foreign brokers’ Buy Average: PHP11.72
- Online foreign brokers’ Sell Average: PHP11.76
- Number of net buyers among the participating online foreign brokers: 7 out of 11
- CLSA bought the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP856,700,216.00.
- CLSA sold the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP648,958,492.00.
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Dec-11-2017 to Feb-08-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 0 out of 115 participants or 0.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 20 out of 115 participants or 17.39% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 11.7040
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 11.6544
On a 30-day trading period, BLOOM is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP1,134,140,825.00.
Based on this Risk Level calculator I’ve developed, I would say BLOOM is still on the moderate risk level.
If you’d like to ask me for my overall sentiment on BLOOM, I will have a different sentiment depending on whether I’ve already entered a position or haven’t yet.
If I haven’t secured my position yet, it’s either I will buy in tranches or remain in wait-and-see mode. What makes me consider being in a wait-and-see mode? It is because 42 out of 79 participants or 53.16% of all participants registered a 100% selling activity today.
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