WPI: Bounce Back Above 1.07 or See It Near 0.90

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Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) has no recent company disclosure that investors could cite as a factor for the “sudden” price fluctuation in the last 15 minutes of trading last March 5, 2018.

What’s the usual response of companies when CMIC ask them to explain the unusual price increase?

Answer: I did not kill Magellan. 🙂

If you monitored the 1-minute chart of WPI since the opening bell this morning, you must have noticed a weak start for this stock. It moved sideways from 10:30am until recess. To me, that means traders were eavesdropping on each other’s next move.

The impatience of traders became heavy around 2:00pm. That’s when the sideways pattern became a downtrend one. The downtrend seemed controlled around 3:00pm but the bears trampled on the bulls by -22.22 percent, unfortunately.

If WPI failed to keep its position above 1.00, we might see it again playing near 0.90 per share. On the other hand, WPI must stay above 1.07 with a bullish volume to gather the momentum it needs to crawl up near 1.17 before 1.35.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Daily Chart - March 6, 2018

If the climb is not supported by volume, don’t keep your hopes up too much.

Remember my price-volume equations. I’ll re-post them below for those who are not regular readers on my website.

  • bullish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bullish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)

Below is the 5-minute chart of WPI. Volume in the last 30 minutes of trading became very flimsy compared to the volume registered in the first 30 minutes of trading.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - 5 Minute Chart - March 6, 2018

I understand not all of you have access to the intraday charts of stocks. Not everyone knows how to interpret what appears on intraday charts. I started that way, too.

So, instead of ranting about what I did not understand, I decided to create my proprietary Price-Volume Distribution chart generator. This tool helps me see the most traded price points relative to volume.

How do I interpret this Price-Volume Distribution (PVD) chart of WPI?

First, I will check the previous closing price of the stock. If the price at the topmost part of my PVD chart is higher than yesterday’s closing price and most of the volume is parked towards the upper half of my PVD chart, that means the intraday sentiment is bullish. Yes, I don’t need to pull the intraday chart of the stock on my broker’s platform.

If the price at the topmost part of my PVD chart is lower than yesterday’s closing price, regardless where most of the volume is registered, that means the intraday sentiment is bearish. This is the case of WPI today. There are no significant cross-trades for WPI today.

Those trades that happened towards the middle of my PVD chart are the transactions of those who chased the stock this morning thinking it would do a ceiling play today and those who were smart enough to lock-in their profits through their trailing stop-loss.

Is there a way for me to confirm whether today’s traders averaged up or locked-in profits?

There is. I’ll show you my Top 10 Players charts shortly.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Price-Volume Distribution - March 6, 2018

Do you see the unusual change in WPI’s volume? If you’re a beginner and you see a non-organic growth on the stock’s volume and there’s no company disclosure that could explain this, I advise that you stay on the sidelines and observe the stock so you will know what to do the next time you see a stock that has the similar pattern.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Volume - March 6, 2018

Price-chasers were left at the 1.11-1.12 range.

Do not expect today’s sharp decline in the price of WPI to shake the sentiment of the top 10 players of this stock for the past two months. Why? That’s plain common sense. Today’s total turnover value cannot outnumber the 2-month total turnover value of WPI.

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Jan-09-2018 to Mar-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 4 out of 93 participants or 4.30% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 93 participants or 4.30% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.1177
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.1223

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Top 10 Players - Jan 9-March 6, 2018

The March MTD Top 10 Players’ sentiment also shows that price-chasers were left to the top.

What did I see on the chart below to think that way? The size of the green bars (positive net value) is just one-tenth of the size of the blue bar (total turnover value). The red bars aren’t that long. This means most WPI holders are still holding their position at a high price hoping the bearish sentiment will reverse soon.

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-01-2018 to Mar-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 3 out of 88 participants or 3.41% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 7 out of 88 participants or 7.95% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.1505
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.1555

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Top 10 Players - March 1-6, 2018

The WTD Top 10 Players’ sentiment still shows that majority of this week’s WPI traders are still holding their position at the top.

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-05-2018 to Mar-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 3 out of 88 participants or 3.41% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 9 out of 88 participants or 10.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.1537
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.1593

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Top 10 Players - March 5-6, 2018

Did SB Equities fall into the price trap or they know something investable on WPI that we do not see?

This broker is the only one among the top 10 that has the tallest green bar. Look at its buying and selling averages: 1.14sh

This 1.14 could play an important role tomorrow if the intraday sentiment will be bullish. Watch out for 0.97-0.99 if the price continues to go south.

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Mar-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 16 out of 74 participants or 21.62% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 5 out of 74 participants or 6.76% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.1641
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.1634

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Top 10 Players - March 6, 2018

Foreign investors are not big players of WPI.

On a 30-day trading period, WPI is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP3,176,140.00.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Foreign Fund Flow - March 6, 2018

WPI has an extremely high-risk level.

If it had not been of last Monday’s sudden price movement, WPI would only have a moderate risk level. What I like the most about my Risk Level chart generator is that I can see at a glance if the stock made a sudden price movement.

If the red trendline has been gradually moving up and down for a long time and a sharp decline or rise appears, that means something “un-organic” happens to the stock’s price. If you’re my client and you request for the Risk Level of your chart and you see something similar to the chart below, I would advise that you think at least 10 times if you really want to trade the stock, especially if you’re a newbie in the market.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) - Risk Level - March 6, 2018

What’s my recommendation?

Newbies, stay on the sidelines for now. Observe WPI.

Intermediate traders, calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first. Don’t bargain for people’s sentiments by asking all over the stock market-related Facebook Groups. Do data analysis. You won’t need to shop around for opinions if you will only learn how to use the data that your broker provides to you. If you got a favorable reward-to-risk ratio, let your trailing stop-loss take care of you.

Advanced traders, to each his own.

To my clients, log into your accounts at www.stocksignals.ph and go straight to the Private Clients Forum. You may request for any of the following charts:

  • Online Foreign Brokers’ Transactions
  • Foreign Fund Flow
  • Top 10 Players
  • Risk Level
  • Price-Volume Distribution

My team and I have started to bombard our Private Clients Forum with lots of intraday updates.

Please check our daily video for our Top 5 Gainers and Top 5 Losers Analysis. It’s a 35- to 40-minute video. You will know our sentiment based on the fundamental and technical analysis.

I also encourage you to read our 5 Daily Stock Analysis for more updates.

If you are happy with what I’ve been giving to you for free, could you write a comment at the bottom of this article and tell me what you’ve learned from me or what did you like the most about my analysis?

If you think I got some awesome stuff on my website, could you share this article with your friends on social media? There are social media icons at the top and bottom of this article. Thank you.

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee De Guzman

I have helped thousands of Filipinos trade independently and invest profitably through the Equilyst Analytics, Inc. I have also helped hundreds of SMEs and Fortune 500 companies build and boost their online presence through iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. Read my About Me page.
Jaycee De Guzman

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