ALI: Buy the Dips While Foreign Investors Are Selling?

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Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) ceased going farther the southward direction when it hit 39.75 last 21 March 2018, Wednesday. That 39.75 was revisited the following day as the stock’s intraday low. With that, I would consider 39.75 as the support level of ALI. How about its resistance level?

There are many ways to identify the support and resistance levels of a stock. You can use Simple Moving Averages, the plain identification of these levels using the chart’s candlesticks, a Fibonacci, and more.

I’d like to use Fibonacci in this demonstration. The 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement at 42.25 serves as ALI’s resistance level as a precursor to 43.70. But whenever I use Fibonacci, I treat the price range covered by the 50 percent and 61.8 percent Down Fibonacci retracements as the stock’s resistance range.

The next support of ALI should it break down below 39.75 is 37.45, which is the 38.2 percent Down Fibonacci extension.

While Stochastic Daily and RSI Daily do not confirm that ALI is completely trading inside the bearish or oversold territory, the position of ALI’s last price below my three SMAs confirms that this stock is already moving in an oversold territory.

It’s a confirmed oversold stock when your longer-term SMAs are hovering the shorter-term SMAs. The opposite is true when the shorter-term SMAs are the ones positioned above the longer-term SMAs. Try our Stock Market Tutorials if you wish to learn more about different indicators, how to use them, and their significance in trading.

Ayala Land (ALI) - Daily Chart - 23 March 2018

The bearishness of ALI is with a significant volume. As you can see below, ALI’s bearish price action was with a volume exceeding its 30-day volume average.

I’ll repost my equations for price-volume correlation below for the benefit of my new followers and readers.

  • bullish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bullish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)

Ayala Land (ALI) - Volume - 23 March 2018

The majority of ALI’s volume was parked in the lower half of my Price-Volume Distribution chart. Without looking at my intraday chart on my online stockbroker’s platform, I can tell the intraday trend of the stock, the best price points that can serve as candidates for buying or selling points, and more. Monitor the price range from 40.35 and below next week.

If you’re one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics, Inc., I strongly advise that you post a request for the Price-Volume Distribution chart of the stock you’re eyeing to trade in our Private Clients Forum before you make a buy or sell decision.

If you are a subscriber to our Daily Stock Analysis service, we automatically discuss the PVD chart of the five stocks that we include in our daily stock analysis.

If your stock portfolio is screwed up, you may enroll it in our Stock Portfolio Rehabilitation Program. We will regularly discuss the PVD charts of your stocks in this program.

Ayala Land (ALI) - Price-Volume Distribution - 23 March 2018

Are foreign investors in or out on ALI?

They’re out – for now. On a 30-day trading period, ALI is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP4,650,084,230.00.

We also discuss the foreign investors’ sentiment in the following services that we offer to our clients:

Ayala Land (ALI) - Foreign Fund Flow - 23 March 2018

Can a bearish stock attract investors to do significant buying?

Yes. Why? Did someone tell you that doesn’t happen? That happens a lot, especially on blue-chip stocks. Take ALI’s week-to-date top 10 players’ sentiment as an example. ALI’s price is bearish but 28 percent of the brokers outside the top 10 players’ list registered a 100 percent buying activity. In other words, they had the appetite to buy ALI at a cheaper price.

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-19-2018 to Mar-23-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 26 out of 93 participants or 27.96% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 3 out of 93 participants or 3.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 40.5814
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 40.6243

Ayala Land (ALI) - Top 10 Players - 19-23 March 2018

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Mar-23-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 29 out of 62 participants or 46.77% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 62 participants or 6.45% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 40.4435
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 40.5191

Ayala Land (ALI) - Top 10 Players - 23 March 2018

Why is it important to have an access to the Top 10 Players chart of your stocks?

Don’t you see it? My Top 10 Players chart and interpretation enable you to see the top 10 players’ “average price” for multiple time periods. I use the average buying and selling prices that my Top 10 Players chart generates as candidates for my buying and selling price points.

We discuss the 2-month, month-to-date, week-to-date, and end-of-day sentiment of the top 10 players of a stock in our Daily Stock Analysis, Top 5 Gainers and Top 5 Losers Analysis, and Private Clients Forum.

Those who enrolled their stocks in our Stock Portfolio Rehabilitation Program receives a monthly executive summary of their stocks. We also have a 30-minute one-on-one monthly consultation.

How’s ALI’s risk level?

ALI remains to be a low-risk stock. I recommend that beginners start with low-risk stocks. However, I am not saying you should buy any low-risk stock without doing data analysis.

This Risk Level indicator is another proprietary tool that we include in our reports for our clients at Equilyst Analytics, Inc.

Ayala Land (ALI) - Risk Level - 23 March 2018

That’s all for my free update for you on ALI. 🙂

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Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee De Guzman

I have helped thousands of Filipinos trade independently and invest profitably through the Equilyst Analytics, Inc. I have also helped hundreds of SMEs and Fortune 500 companies build and boost their online presence through iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. Read my About Me page.
Jaycee De Guzman

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