ALI Technical Analysis: How to Trade Ayala Land Below 45?

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ALI Technical Analysis: How to Trade Ayala Land Below 45?

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) closed at 45 per share, down by 4.26 percent, as of October 3, 2019, Thursday. The total turnover value reached P696 million.

Foreign investors registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P487 million. It’s the biggest one-day Net Foreign Selling week-to-date. Nonetheless, foreign investors remain as net buyers year-to-date.

Ayala Land (ALI) - Daily Chart 1 - 10.3.2019

Support is at 44.85, which is in confluence with the 50 percent retracement of the Up Fibonacci. Resistance is at 49.50, which is in confluence with the 78.6 percent retracement of the Up Fibonacci.

If ALI breaks below 44.85, it’ll make 43 as its next immediate support.

At this point, my 10SMACD combo is already invalid and my Momentum Power Indicator is already bearish on ALI. There are no buy signals. The downtrend is still more likely to continue.

Risk level is low based on its historical volatility score of 34.70 percent. However, don’t translate that as a signal for you to average down. There’s nothing worthy to be averaged down on ALI at this moment.

Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: 45.00
VWAP: 45.25314226
Most Traded: 45.35 – 45.15
Most Voluminous: 45.2 – 45

Ayala Land (ALI) - Trade Volume Distribution 1 - 10.3.2019

The last price is lower than the VWAP. The dominant range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. This is a confirmation of my bearish Momentum Power Indicator.

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of ALI as of Oct-03-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 45.00.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 45.3953
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 45.3033
Bonus Info:
41 out of 81 participants or 50.62% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
2 out of 81 participants or 2.47% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Ayala Land (ALI) - True Market Sentiment 1 - 10.3.2019

The bearish True Market Sentiment agrees with my technical assessment that the downtrend is still more likely to continue. This shows that the majority of the top 10 brokers today did not have a strong desire to buy the dips.

Recommendations

If you still have ALI, understand that holding a stock beyond your tolerable risk won’t make you a saint. Have pity on your capital. Don’t risk more than what you can realistically handle with sanity. Calculate your trailing stop from your entry price. If the output says that you should have already sold your position a long time ago, then, your only logical step now is to sell on strength.

If you do not have ALI right now, then, bravo! That’s a good decision. There are no buy signals so why should you buy, right? Add ALI in your watchlist if you’d like to but don’t add it yet in your portfolio. Wait for the 10SMACD combo to become valid and the Momentum Power Indicator to become bullish. Once the technical buy signals re-appear, make sure that you calculate your reward-to-risk ratio. If, and only if, you’re satisfied with your reward-to-risk ratio, that’s the only time you should enter a new position in any stock.

If you’re not a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics or if you have not attend my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar yet, you won’t understand my terminologies.

If you’re an Equilyst Analytics subscriber, please take advantage of your access in our Private Clients Forum by asking for our latest insight on ALI (or any stock) whenever you’d like to. We’ll tell you if the technical buy signals are already present.

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

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