Ayala Corporation: Buy Within 838-905 or Wait Till 780?

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Stock Analysis - JayceeDeGuzman.com

Ayala Corporation (AC) moved sideways above the 1000-apiece level since October 2017. That sideways movement turned into a bearish one when it dove below to 937-apiece on 20 March 2018.

On the daily chart, my shorter-term and longer-term SMAs put AC in a bearish channel. However, for me, this bearish movement can only be a confirmed bearish sentiment both on the short-term and long-term perspectives if and when it breaks down below the support near 838. Before we even get closer to 838, the support near 905 must be broken down.

The standing immediate resistance of AC is near 1,000. Once it returns to the 1,000 level, the resistance will be 1,100. Still on the daily chart, Stochastic says that AC is in an oversold state while RSI is still 10 points above the oversold state. It’s the same sentiment when you flip the chart on the weekly. Below is the weekly chart of AC.

Ayala Corporation - Weekly Chart - 20 March 2018

As of March 20, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume is 559.70% of the previous trading day. Yesterday’s price drop was with a significant volume. I’ll repost my equations for price-volume correlation below for the benefit of my new followers and readers.

  • bullish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bullish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
  • bearish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)

Ayala Corporation - Volume - 20 March 2018

What’s the frequently transacted price point of AC on 20 March 2018?

If you will plot the 5-minute intraday chart of AC, you will see that the frequently visited price was indeed 937. The problem of some traders is that they do not have access to their online stockbroker’s interactive charting tool. The other problem of those who have access is they do not know how to interpret what they see. Some do not even know where to find the intraday charts.

I have resolved those problems for my clients who have subscribed to Daily Stock Analysis, Private Clients Forum, and Stock Portfolio Rehabilitation Program services of Equilyst Analytics, Inc.

With my Price-Volume Distribution chart, you can see at a glance the frequently transacted price points. This is easier to understand than the regular intraday chart. It’s quicker to see if the majority of the volume is registered near the intraday high or intraday low of the stock.

When you see that the majority of trades are registered near the intraday high and the intraday high is higher than the previous closing price, it makes sense to think that you can position your plan to enter a new trade within the range of the upper half of my PVD chart, specifically on the price points that earned the highest volume.

Plan your trade within the lower half of my PVD chart when the majority of trades are registered near the lower half of my PVD chart. Pick the price points with the longest volume bar.

Some of you may argue that there’s no need to check all of these and all you have to do is to buy at “any” price. Why would you buy at “any price” when you can identify the strongest price points as trading happens with the help of my PVD chart?

Why would you buy at any price when you have the means to see that 937 is the frequently transacted price as trading happens? Doesn’t it make sense to park your buying price at that price, too? Why buy at 937.50 when you see a higher probability of getting some shares at 937.00.

Don’t tell me, “It’s just 50 cents, Jaycee.” You don’t know what you’re losing when you sum up all those 50 cents you’ve snubbed in your trading career.

If you haven’t been my client, I can understand why you struggle not to see the significance of this price-volume distribution chart.

If you are my client who subscribes to the Private Clients Forum, please request for your stock’s price-volume distribution chart on our Private Clients Forum before you execute your trade setup.

Ayala Corporation - Price-Volume Distribution - 20 March 2018

Foreign investors are net sellers of AC for the past 30 trading days.

On a 30-day trading period, AC is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP2,300,649,204.00.

If you plan to invest in index stocks like AC, check the foreign investors’ sentiment first. If the price is bearish and the foreign investors are relentless in vomiting their shares, don’t hurry. Continue observing the stock’s price movement, volume, and its foreign fund flow. When the downward momentum seems to have weakened, re-assess your trade setup and plan to enter a new position.

 I strongly advise that you request for your stock’s Foreign Fund Flow in our Private Clients Forum also before you trade any stock.

This is automatically discussed in our Top 5 Gainers and Top 5 Losers Analysis video (every trading day) and in our Daily Stock Analysis (5 comprehensive stock analyses every trading day).

Ayala Corporation - Foreign Fund Flow - 20 March 2018

Accumulation Mode: 35 out of 96 brokers who traded AC from March 1 to 20 had 100% buying activity

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-01-2018 to Mar-20-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 35 out of 96 participants or 36.46% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 2 out of 96 participants or 2.08% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1003.0322
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1008.4373

Ayala Corporation - Top 10 Players - 1-20 March 2018

Accumulation Mode: 44 out of 82 brokers who traded AC yesterday had 100% buying activity

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Mar-20-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 44 out of 82 participants or 53.66% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 2 out of 82 participants or 2.44% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 939.7840
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 941.0992

Ayala Corporation - Top 10 Players - 20 March 2018

The two Top 10 Players charts I’ve presented to you show that brokers outside the top 10 list seem to snub the downtrend movement of the price as some continue to buy the dips.

If you plan to follow suit, take note of the overall and broker-wise buy and sell averages.

The 2-month, month-to-date, week-to-date and end-of-day Top 10 Players are discussed in all 5 comprehensive stock analyses (daily) for our Daily Stock Analysis subscribers.

I also recommend that you request for your stock’s Top 10 Players chart (as trading happens) in our Private Clients Forum.

AC is still a low-risk stock.

My Risk Level calculator is one of my many proprietary trading tools. None of the brokers in the Philippines has this tool.

I recommend low to medium risk-level stocks to new investors. Now, when I said that, it doesn’t mean you can hoard any low- to medium-risk stocks at any price just because they have those risk levels. Check your stock’s Price-Volume Distribution chart as always by posting a request in our Private Clients Forum.

Ayala Corporation - Risk Level - 20 March 2018

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Did I help you? The best way to express how I’ve helped you is by writing a testimonial for me. I get the motivation to continue doing this for you when you tell me that what I do is helpful to you. Click here to submit your testimonial.

Jaycee De Guzman

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