$BLOOM: To a Flourishing Finish or Just the Same BLOOMPanis?

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Stock Analysis - JayceeDeGuzman.com

It’s been a while since BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORPORATION (BLOOM) has been printing candlesticks with colors that are not friendly to the eye. Where is this stock going?

If you have been monitoring BLOOM for trading purposes, and you had P30,000.00 play money, I am hoping you got the chance to plot your trading range by checking BLOOM’s 10-year spread on a Monthly timeframe. Price points between 2.96 to 3.02 were good entry points. You may also consider your short-term resistance, at 3.75 (or a few ticks below), as your selling point. As it continues to ascend, you may consider adjusting your reward-to-risk ratio should you decide increase your position.

Note that I’d have a different stance on this name if you are a long-term position investor. The Stock Signals can accommodate both short-term traders and long-term position investors.

BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORPORATION (BLOOM) - 01.26.2016 - Monthly

Assuming you had the chance to make an entry at 2.96 and you bought 10,000 shares of BLOOM, this would have been your break-even average price.

BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORPORATION (BLOOM) - 01.26.2016 - Average Price to Breakeven

Assuming your risk tolerance when trading is nothing more than 2- to 3-percent, and you set 3.75 as your target selling price, this is how your reward-to-risk ratio would have looked like.

BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORPORATION (BLOOM) - 01.26.2016 - Reward to Risk Ratio

I wrote an article entitled “How to Use the Stock Signals’ Reward-to-Risk Ratio Calculator?” I’d recommend you to read it.

From January 4 to 25, among the 11 online foreign brokers, CLSA, MORGAN, and UBS are the top 3 net sellers of BLOOM. On the other hand, CREDIT and MACQUIRIE have kept their good appetite to acquire BLOOM. CREDIT’s Sell Average is in confluence with the short-term resistance I got from the Monthly spread (3.75).

BLOOM - Online Foreign Brokers' Transactions from Jan-04-2016 to Jan-25-2016

Here are the top 10 players of BLOOM from January 4 to 25. Any idea why AB CAPITAL has kept on accumulating BLOOM at a Buy Average of 3.16 and barely selling at a Sell Average of 3.26? Okay, I’ll leave you thinking here. If you’re my client, log in to your account and proceed to our private forum so we can continue discussing this issue.

BLOOM - 10 Brokers with the Highest Total Turnover Value (PHP) from Jan-04-2016 to Jan-25-2016

Do you have an idea of foreign investors’ stance on BLOOM? I’ll give you a quick re-cap. The second half of 2015 wasn’t good for BLOOM. Outflow of foreign funds worsen in 4Q2015. Apparently, the same sentiment continues this January 2016.

BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORPORATION (BLOOM) - 01.26.2016 - Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Foreign Flows

As of January 26, 2016, at 01:50PM GMT+8, BLOOM ranged between PHP3.50 and PHP3.65.
BLOOM’s last price is PHP3.60 with a Percentage Change of -1.1% or PHP-0.04.

MACD, at -0.34, shows that bias is still on the downside.
MACD is trending below the signal line.

RSI, at 42.47, shows that BLOOM is neither oversold nor overbought.

Stochastic, at 44.15, shows that BLOOM is neither oversold nor overbought.

BLOOM moves above its 5-day EMA. That signifies bullishness on a short-term range.

With a volatility of 74.95% and with its last price of 3.60, BLOOM has:
= 68% chance of ranging between 0.90 to 6.30, and 32% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 95% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 9.00, and 5% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 99% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 11.69, and 1% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months.

Note: These 68%, 95%, and 99% are constant percentages of probabilities that a price range might be hit after 12 months based on one standard deviation, two standard deviations, and three standard deviations, respectively. Be informed that we’re talking about possibilities and not certainties since implied volatility is not an exact science. While implied volatility helps you get a forecast of a stock’s possible price range after a certain time period, it doesn’t tell you the exact direction (trend) of the stock from here on until the end of the specified time period.

As of January 26, 2016, at 01:50PM GMT+8, volume is 20.65% of the previous trading day.
Total Trade Amount on January 26, 2016 as of 01:50:44 PM: PHP17,992,112.00

All brokers’ buy average as of January 26, 2016: PHP3.59
All brokers’ buy average as of January 26, 2016: PHP3.60

Note: Below are FOREIGN BROKERS’ numbers only. There’s a separate chart where you’ll find FOREIGN INVESTORS’ Net Foreign Buying or Selling.

As of January 26, 2016, 2 out of 11 active online foreign brokers traded BLOOM.
Online foreign brokers’ Buy Average: PHP3.59
Online foreign brokers’ Sell Average: PHP3.58
Number of net buyers among the participating online foreign brokers: 1 out of 2
MACQUARIE bought the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP4,203,930.00
ATR sold the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP960,220.00

On a 30-day trading period, BLOOM is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP144,570,969.00.

Jaycee De Guzman

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