CNPF Technical Analysis: What to Do if You Missed the Buy Signal Between 13.90 and 14.10?

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CNPF Technical Analysis: What to Do if You Missed the Buy Signal Between 13.90 and 14.10?

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) is currently priced at 14.62 apiece, up by 3.10 percent, as of 11:15AM, October 2, 2019. The total turnover value is at P10 million only.

Foreign investors are currently the main mover of CNPF with a Foreign Buy worth P9.9 million and Foreign Sell worth P7.8 million resulting to a Net Foreign Buying worth P2.17 million.

Century Pacific Food - Daily Chart 1 - 10.2.2019

Even if foreign investors are net buyers year-to-date, their participation on CNPF is not on a significant level. Therefore, I am not going to use foreign investors’ participation as a factor in my trade decisions should I trade CNPF.

CNPF broke above the previous resistance at 4.30, which is now acting as its immediate support. The new immediate resistance is at 15.50.

The 10SMACD combo is valid since the last price is moving above the 10SMA and MACD is moving above the signal line.

The risk level of CNPF is low based on its current historical volatility score of 21 percent.

The most recent validation of my 10SMACD combo and bullishness of my Momentum Power Indicator were met on September 10, 2019. That was the time when CNPF was trading between 13.90 and 14.10.

If you are a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics or if you attended the Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar, you know these “10SMACD combo” and “Momentum Power Indicator” are.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: 14.64
VWAP: 14.25726351
Most Traded: 14.4 – 14.48
Most Voluminous: 14.18 – 14.18

Century Pacific Food - Trade-Volume Distribution 1 - 10.2.2019

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of CNPF as of Oct-02-2019 at 11:23AM, with a last price of 14.6400.
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 14.4163
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 14.3985
Bonus Info:
3 out of 22 participants or 13.64% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
14 out of 22 participants or 63.64% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Century Pacific Food - True Market Sentiment 1 - 10.2.2019

Recommendations

If you have CNPF…

If you have CNPF because your trailing stop has not been hit yet, you have a data-driven reason to top up within the dominant range because the Momentum Power Indicator is bullish and the 10SMACD combo is valid. However, if your risk tolerance makes you choose to be in a risk-averse mode, I suggest that you postpone your plan to top up and entertain that idea again once the True Market Sentiment becomes bullish and, of course, the 10SMACD combo must still be valid and the Momentum Power Indicator bullish when that happens.

Remember to do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop just like what I taught you during the Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar.

If you do not have CNPF…

If you do not have CNPF and you’d like to do a test-buy, I suggest that you calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first. If you’re satisfied with your reward-to-risk ratio, then, test-buy within the dominant range.

Calculate your trailing stop immediately from your entry price.

Regardless whether you’re in a position of topping up or doing a test-buy, I suggest that you request for CNPF’s latest technical analysis in our Private Clients Forum (accessible by subscribers only) so we can update you if we still see buy signals on the stock. Know that sentiments change when trade-volume distribution changes.

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

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