$FOOD Trade Dissection: 40% Profit in 2 Rounds

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I recommended Alliance Select Foods Int’l, Inc. (FOOD) to our EquiPicks subscribers on August 29, 2018. We traded this name twice. The estimated after-fees profit for the first round was between 20 to 23 percent. The estimated after-fees profit for the second round was between 15 to 18 percent. Would you like to know how we traded this stock? Let’s do that. However, I am not going to post every single day-to-day update. I will just post the highlights. I don’t want this post to be super lengthy.

But first off, I’d like to emphasize that I am documenting our trades not for me to show off our gains but for you to pick nuggets of trade strategies that you may find compatible with yours. I’m giving you freemium stuff, pal. I hope you’re loving it.

Why do I mention the most active price points every time I post the Price-Volume Distribution chart of a stock?

Those are the price points that got the highest volume and the highest number of trades. Whether you are in a buying or selling mode, knowing where the bulk of trades is happening is helpful in your buying or selling decisions. Our Price-Volume Distribution Chart helps us in many ways. 

Why do I always post the Top 10 Players chart?

It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways. If the top 10 players’ buying average is above the median of the stock’s intraday high and low, that boosts my data-driven confidence to believe that the intraday bullishness of the stock is sustainable.

In our Quick Start Guide (accessible by subscribers only), you’ll find a detailed documentation of how you can use the Price-Volume Distribution and Top 10 Players charts to a profitable trading.

FOOD - Trade Plan for 2 Rounds - Short-term Trading Stock Recommendation by EquiPicks

Day 1 of Round 1: August 29, 2018

Here’s the timestamped screenshot of what I posted on FOOD’s thread in our Private Clients Forum last August 29, 2018.

Here’s a trade setup for FOOD.

I find FOOD tradable because it has managed to stay afloat above the 1.03 support. The price is now slightly above its 10SMA and MACD is still above the signal line. This means one of my buy signals is up.

FOOD is perfectly moving inside the bullish territory both on the short-term and long-term time periods since its longer-term SMAs are below the shorter-term SMAs.

The resistance that we “want” FOOD to break is at 1.35.  That gives us a generous upside of over 30%.

While some of you may want to treat that psychological resistance as your fixed target selling price, I would still suggest that you use your trailing stop loss as your selling price (gain or loss).

Time and again, I will keep on reminding you that we’re making data-driven projections here. I’m not talking about guarantees or certainties.

For the experienced traders who have been trading for years, I know I don’t need to emphasize that. But for the newbies, it’s worth mentioning.

For one, FOOD has a EXTREMELY HIGH RISK level due to its risk percentage of 185.27%.

Although yesterday’s volume is below its 30-day volume average, my trade setup for FOOD is an “anticipation play.” Meaning, it’s a trade setup to enter a new position (in tranches only) before most of the confirmed signals come out.

FOOD registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P284,580.00 as of August 28, 2018. On a 30-day trading period, FOOD is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP889.00.

Let’s not expect the foreign investors to play a significant role in our trading decisions for FOOD  since they’re not the jockeys of FOOD.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Aug-01-2018 to Aug-28-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 89 participants or 3.37% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 89 participants or 13.48% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0460
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0497

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Aug-01-2018 to Aug-28-2018 is from 1.0460 to 1.0497.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Aug-28-2018 at 03:30PM:

10 out of 36 participants or 27.78% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 36 participants or 27.78% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0736
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0754

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Aug-28-2018 is from 1.0736 to 1.0754.

I see a bullish sentiment from the Top 10 Players MTD and Intraday charts. The top 10 players’ buying average is very close to FOOD’s current price of 1.08.

I find 1.05-1.10 as range fit for an entry price. 

Please be quick to adjust your sentiments when things change, ladies and gentlemen. Mind you, my interpretation is based on what I see on the data referenced as of the time of writing this post. It’s not impossible that a huge transaction (buy or sell) can be registered minutes after I’ve published this post.

So if you’re a newbie in trading and you’re not yet on that level wherein you can quickly adjust your trade setup based on the latest happenings on the stock, you’re better off observing our discussions here for now.

Trailing stop loss: don’t forget this. 

Round 1: Follow-up Post by EOD of August 29, 2018

FOOD may play actively again within the 1.05-1.10 range tomorrow as far as what I see on its Price-Volume Distribution chart is concerned.

After all, the average buying price of the top 10 players is at the median of this range.

However, the market doesn’t move according to my words so you should be quick to re-assess the situation if FOOD acts as a contrarian, especially in the first 15 minutes of trading.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Aug-29-2018 at 03:30PM:

10 out of 40 participants or 25.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 40 participants or 27.50% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0721
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0761

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Aug-29-2018 is from 1.0721 to 1.0761.

Round 1: September 5, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid as of the time of posting this update.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-05-2018 at 02:40PM:

4 out of 19 participants or 21.05% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
7 out of 19 participants or 36.84% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0368
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0396

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-05-2018 is from 1.0368 to 1.0396.

The most actively traded price point as of the time indicated on the PVD chart is 1.03.

Round 1: September 6, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid. I posted this on August 29. It opened at 1.03, closed at 1.05, hit an intraday high of 1.11, and hit an intraday low of 1.02 on that day.

I will continue to provide coverage for FOOD as long as it’s above 0.99.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

8 out of 21 participants or 38.10% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 21 participants or 23.81% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9992
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9990

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-06-2018 is from 0.9990 to 0.9990.

The most active price point today was 1.00.

Round 1 Update: September 10, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid. The price is still above 1.00-1.03.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-10-2018 at 03:30PM:

11 out of 24 participants or 45.83% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 24 participants or 20.83% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0449
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0433

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-10-2018 is from 1.0433 to 1.0433.

The most active range today was between 1.03 and 1.05.

Round 1 Update: September 18, 2018

The most active range today was between 1.17 and 1.27.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-18-2018 at 03:30PM:

13 out of 58 participants or 22.41% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 58 participants or 13.79% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.2296
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.2257

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-18-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.2257 to 1.2296.

End of Round 1: 20-23% Estimated After-fees Profit 

In my post dated September 18, I knew that the bullishness of the previous trading day weakened already. How did I know? See the Price-Volume Distribution chart. Do you see the price points that got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades near the intraday low? That’s it! Do you know see how helpful this chart is? At a glance, you can form a data-driven sentiment. Yes, that quick.

Now, those who apply a 10 percent risk tolerance when trading must have already realized their gains either on September 17 or 18. The after-fees profit is between 20 to 23 percent.

Updates Between Rounds 1 and 2

I did not stop giving daily updates on FOOD even after most of our customers’ who traded FOOD realized their gains. I wanted to see if FOOD would respect a major support and show signs of a potential rebound near that level.

Post-Round 1 Update: September 27, 2018

FOOD is re-testing the support at 1.03 once again. MACD is bearish. The Fast Stochastic is below the Slow Stochastic and that’s a bearish signal, too. The price is below the 10SMA and that’s another bearish signal. We’ll see tomorrow if FOOD will respect the support at 1.03.

There’s no better advice than to tell you to respect your trailing stop loss.

The most active range today was between 1.02 and 1.03.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-27-2018 at 03:30PM:

13 out of 31 participants or 41.94% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 31 participants or 29.03% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0251
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0269

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-27-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.0251 to 1.0269.

Who Said It’s Too Late if You Didn’t Catch the Bottom?

Some of you may want to say, “Jaycee, you should have entered a new position on October 11, 2018.”

Hindsight is 20/20. You are saying that just because you see that FOOD seemed to have drawn a support at 0.86 on the chart. I want to see at least one confirmation before I move. Here’s what I saw on my data on October 12, 2018.

This is an EOD update as of October 12, 2018.

FOOD is now moving near the intersection between its resistance (1.03) and support (0.90).  Last Friday’s volume was not that significant so it doesn’t add up to my confidence to think that FOOD is about to register new and taller candlesticks next week unless I see tall green bars on next week’s daily Top 10 Players charts. I  don’t see much confident buying activities among the top 10 players of FOOD when I look at its EOD and WTD Top 10 Players charts.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 7 out of 26 participants or 26.92% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 26 participants or 15.38% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.8822
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.8847

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.8822 to 0.8847.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-08-2018 to Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 8 out of 44 participants or 18.18% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 44 participants or 9.09% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9051
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9099

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-08-2018 to Oct-12-2018 is from 0.9051 to 0.9099.

The most active range was between 0.88 and 0.90.

Day 1 of Round 2: October 16, 2018 Update

I got one signal from Stochastic that warranted the idea of entering a new position on FOOD for the second time. This is an EOD update as of October 15, 2018.

This is an EOD update as of October 15, 2018.

The Slow Stochastic is already moving below Fast Stochastic. FOOD needs more volume to sustain the upward momentum. Nonetheless, FOOD is closer to its resistance at 1.03 than to its support at 0.80.

The most active range was between 0.91 and 0.93.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-15-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 7 out of 22 participants or 31.82% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 6 out of 22 participants or 27.27% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9216
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9166

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-15-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9166 to 0.9216.

Round 2: October 23, 2018 Update

This is an EOD update as of October 23, 2018.

FOOD is poised to break out above the resistance at 1.00. Support is at 0.86.

I like how MACD and Stochastic show bullish divergences with their partner indicators (signal line for MACD, Fast Stochastic for Slow Stochastic).

We want to see the price above 1.10 so that the 10 SMA will cross above the 20 SMA. If and when that happens, the uptrend sentiment will become stronger than where it is at the moment.

Top 10 Players – October 23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-23-2018 at 03:30PM:

6 out of 23 participants or 26.09% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 23 participants or 34.78% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9942
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9946

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-23-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9942 to 0.9946.

Round 2 Update: October 26, 2018

If you have a risk tolerance of at least 15%, you’ll find this trade setup valid while the price is above 0.92.  If your risk tolerance is up to 25%, this trade setup will be valid while the price is above 0.86. All of these are based on the closing price of 1.05 last August 29, 2018.

Right now, FOOD is two ticks above 0.92. We hope to see a higher volume to sustain FOOD’s ascent.

Most active price point(s)/range(s): 0.91-0.94

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-26-2018 at 11:22AM:

7 out of 18 participants or 38.89% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
4 out of 18 participants or 22.22% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9168
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9259

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-26-2018 at 11:22AM is from 0.9168 to 0.9259.

Round 2 Update: November 3, 2018

This is an EOD update as of October 31, 2018.

FOOD might continue to trade the range (0.86-1.00) this coming week unless the volume will increase by a significant level.

While the Fast Stochastic already crossed above the Slow Stochastic and the MACD already moved above the signal line, the price is still below the 10 SMA.

This is the situation wherein we need more data-driven bases where we can draw our go or no-go decision to top-up.

I’d like to emphasize what I like about the top 10 players’ sentiment. The top 10 players’ psychological average price on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts plays between 0.94 and 0.95. That’s on-point to the closing price of FOOD last Friday. The top 10 players last October are still holding on to their position. So consider that in your trade decisions.

Let’s check our other data points below.

Price-Volume Distribution

Most active price point(s)/range(s): 0.95

Foreign Fund Flow

The outflow of foreign funds has weakened this week. If this is an early sign of an upcoming bullish reversal, then, topping up or entering a new position deems valid. However, that is an IF statement – a conditional clause.

FOOD registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P5,640.00 as of October 31, 2018.

On a 30-day trading period, FOOD is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP844,780.00.

Risk Level

FOOD has a MODERATE RISK level due to its risk percentage of 51.46%.

Volume

As of October 31, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of FOOD is 254.37% of the previous trading day. This stock’s latest volume is still below its 30-day volume average.

Remember the correlation between price and volume.

bullish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bullish
bullish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = neutral
bearish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bearish
bearish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = bearish

Top 10 Players EOD – October 31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 15 participants or 20.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 15 participants or 40.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9502
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9503

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9502 to 0.9503.

Top 10 Players WTD – October 29-31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 16 participants or 18.75% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 16 participants or 31.25% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9404
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9406

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 0.9404 to 0.9406.

Top 10 Players MTD – October 1-31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

9 out of 65 participants or 13.85% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 65 participants or 9.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9515
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9590

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 0.9515 to 0.9590.

Round 2 Update: Novemer 23, 2018

This is an EOD update as of November 23, 2018.

Price-Volume Distribution – November 23, 2018

VWAP: 1.0516
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.04, 1.08
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 1.04, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08

Top 10 Players EOD – November 23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
8 out of 19 participants or 42.11% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
3 out of 19 participants or 15.79% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0494
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0560
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.0494 to 1.0560.

Top 10 Players WTD – November 19-23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-19-2018 to Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 48 participants or 8.33% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
14 out of 48 participants or 29.17% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0660
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0651
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-19-2018 to Nov-23-2018 is from 1.0651 to 1.0660.

Top 10 Players MTD – November 5-23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 73 participants or 5.48% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
15 out of 73 participants or 20.55% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0440
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0484
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-23-2018 is from 1.0440 to 1.0484.

End of Round 2: 15-18% Estimated After-fees Profit 

Those who traded FOOD on October 16, 2018 between 0.90 and 0.98 per share and sold their positions when their trailing stop loss was hit between November 26 and 27 profited between 15 and 18 percent (after taxes and fees).

Key Takeaways

  • Learn how to plot support and resistance levels. You’ve won half of the battle when you know how to do this.
  • Don’t fret when you did not catch the literal bottom of a stock. Instead of rushing in, when for confirmed signals.
  • Read the updates that I post in our Private Clients Forum for each of the stocks that I recommend for short-term trading and long-term investing.
  • Refer to my interpretation of the Price-Volume Distribution of a stock to know the best price points where you should buy or sell.
  • Refer to my interpretation of the Top 10 Players chart of a stock if you want to get a confirmation of the sustainability of the intraday sentiment.
  • If you are an EquiPicks subscriber, take advantage of your membership or subscription by posting a stock analysis request in the Stock Analysis Requests section of our Private Clients Forum.

What Did You Learn?

Did you learn a thing or two from what I’ve shared with you? I would appreciate it if you would share this article on social media or forward it to a friend. Please comment below with what you’ve learned. Feel free to ask questions, too. Thank you for reading.

Jaycee De Guzman

I am the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. At iPresence, we have been helping SMEs reach and dominate the global market through our digital marketing services since 2001. At Equilyst, we have been helping Filipinos experience a simplified and profitable stock trading and investing experience in the Philippine Stock Market since 2014.
Jaycee De Guzman

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