Jollibee (JFC) Technical Analysis: Buy Now or Wait Some More?

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Jollibee Foods Corporation Technical Analysis

Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) is currently trading at 225.80 per share, down by 2.08 percent, as of 1:33PM GMT+8 on September 18, 2019.

The total turnover value has already reached almost P30 million. Foreign investors are net sellers with a Net Foreign Selling worth P9.5 million. Foreign investors are still the main drivers of the price of JFC as of the time of writing this analysis.

Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) - Daily Chart Intraday 1 - 9.18.2019

JFC continues to move sideways between the support at 217.60 and the resistance at 242.30. This has been the setup since August 2019.

My 10SMACD combo is already invalid as of the time of writing this report since the last price already broke below the 10SMA even if the MACD is still moving above the signal line.

The risk level of JFC remains low based on its historical volatility score of 27 percent. But like what I teach in my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar, having a low-risk level is not a buy signal.

A valid buy signal for me is a valid 10SMACD combo and a bullish Momentum Power Indicator. A bullish True Market Sentiment is a bonus. The step-by-step procedures on how to find confirmed buy signals are taught in my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar.

Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: 226.20
VWAP: 227.7945648
Most Traded: 230 – 228.4
Most Voluminous: 230 – 228.4

Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) - Trade-Volume Distribution Intraday 1 - 9.18.2019

Even though the dominant range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low, notice also that the last price is already less than the VWAP. All in all, it’s a bearish Momentum Power Indicator for me.

The descent in price is more likely to continue.

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of JFC as of Sep-18-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 226.200.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 227.8048
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 227.9221
Bonus Info:
11 out of 33 participants or 33.33% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 33 participants or 27.27% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) - True Market Sentiment Intraday 1 - 9.18.2019

Looking at this bearish true market sentiment, I do not see a strong conviction from the top 10 brokers to buy the dips by a significant degree. Besides, their overall buying average is less than their overall selling average.

Recommendations

If you still have JFC and if your trailing stop loss has not been hit yet, I suggest that you hold your position but do not buy the dips. There are no logical bases yet on why you should top up.

If what you only know all this time is a pre-defined Target Selling Price and not a trailing stop loss, here’s how you can calculate your trailing stop loss.

If the last price is higher than your average price:
TSL = last price x (100% – your % of risk)

If the last price is less than your average price:
TSL = your average price x (100% – your % of risk)

If you do not have JFC, it’s better for you not to have it, at least, for now. Wait for the 10SMACD combo to become valid and for the Momentum Power Indicator to become bullish.

If you’re a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics, I strongly advise that you regularly check our update for this stock in our Private Clients Forum since this is one of the 30 index stocks that we monitor for the benefit of our clients who are into long-term investing. Regular updates for JFC, and for the other 29 index stocks, are published in our Private Clients Forum.

We also have the Investment Guide for Long-term Investors where we publish updates 4 times a day. Our coverage includes all 30 index stocks in the Philippine Stock Market.

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

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