Price Forecast: ALI, ALT, BDO, DFNN, ISM, JFC, MCP, PGOLD, SMPH, TEL

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Stock Analysis - JayceeDeGuzman.com

I developed a Price Forecaster Calculator for my Stock Signals clients. What’s this for? It helps us get a data-oriented estimate of the stock’s possible price range within or after a certain time period. This calculator computes the annualized statistical or historical volatility of the stock. Then, it considers the indicated smoothing and holding periods to come up with an estimate.

Do you still remember the standard deviation topic that we tackled way back in high school or college? I used that concept. These 68%, 95%, and 99% are constant percentages of probabilities that a price range might be hit within or after the holding period based on one, two, and three standard deviations, respectively.

Be informed that we’re talking about possibilities and not certainties since volatility is not an exact science. While volatility helps you get a forecast of a stock’s possible price range after a certain time period, it doesn’t tell you the exact direction (trend) of the stock from here on until the end of the specified time period.

I know some will negatively react about the accuracy rate of this calculator. Well, to not to appreciate is cheap. To comment negatively on the works of others is cheap. To develop something that can help in the decision-making of others, that’s what counts. The indicated price ranges are estimates. Anyone who passed Math subjects needs no explanation of what an “estimate” means.

I’d like to share my annualized volatility-based price range forecast for ALI, ALT, BDO, DFNN, ISM, JFC, MCP, PGOLD, SMPH, and TEL. Combine the information that I’m sharing with you with your other tools, whatever they may be. These price ranges are not etched in the stone. They are only “estimates”. You get what I mean, chap?

I hope you’ll find this helpful. If you do, would you mind writing some comments in the comment section below? Thanks!

ALI – Ayala Land

ALI - Ayala Land - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

ALT – Alterra Capital Partners

ALT - Alterra Capital Partners - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

BDO – BDO Unibank

BDO - BDO Unibank - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

DFNN

DFNN - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

ISM – ISM Communications Corporation

ISM - ISM Communications Corporation - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

JFC – Jollibee Foods Corporation

JFC - Jollibee Foods Corporation - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

MCP – Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corporation

MCP - Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corporation - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

PGOLD – Puregold Price Club

PGOLD - Puregold Price Club - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

SMPH – SM Prime Holdings

SMPH - SM Prime Holdings - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

TEL – Phil. Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT)

TEL - Phil. Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) - Price Forecast - July 22, 2016

Do you find this helpful? Let me know in the comments.

Jaycee De Guzman

4 COMMENTS

  1. Hi Jaycee,
    Do you also give BUY or SELL recommendation to your subscriber or you just give them data and let them decide on their own?

    Thanks
    Joy

    • Hi Joy,

      I give more than just a buy-and-sell recommendation. But at the end of the day, it is still them who decide on their own which among my recommended stocks they should buy. Here’s an analogy. Let’s say I’m a doctor. I will explain in layman’s terms the diagnostic results from your laboratory tests. I will write my recommended medicines in the prescription paper. At the end of the day, it’s up to the patient whether he will avoid the food I told him to avoid. At the end of the day, it’s up to the patient if he will buy the prescribed medicines or not.

      Please visit http://www.jayceedeguzman.com/stock-signals/ for more details. There are features indicated underneath each subscription plan. Each of those features are briefly described on that page, too. You will see that my service is more than just the plain vanilla buy-and-sell type of service. Feel free to ask if you have further questions.

      Track Record: http://goo.gl/wxh16w
      Testimonials: http://goo.gl/Hj2Eze

  2. Wow! I used statistical methods of projection in my thesis in college, reading this article made me realize that I could also do the same with stock market investing. Thank you for this guide sir!

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