SMPH Data and Technical Analysis: Is the Upward Momentum Strong Enough to Break 36.70?

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SMPH Data and Technical Analysis: Is the Upward Momentum Strong Enough to Break 36.70?

SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) closed at 36.70 per share, up by 3.53 percent, as of closing on September 24, 2019. The total turnover value reached P3.74 billion.

About 95 percent of SMPH’s TTV came from the foreign investors. Because P3.4 billion of that TTV came from a cross-trade, foreign investors only registered a Net Foreign Buying worth P7 million today. Nonetheless, foreign fundies are net sellers year-to-date. The past 3 months were all Net Foreign Selling months.

My 10SMACD combo for SMPH remains valid. This means the last price is above the 10SMA and the MACD is above the signal line.

Support is at 34. Resistance is at 36.70. If it breaks above the current resistance, the next one is at 39.50.

The risk level of SMPH is low due to its historical volatility score of 31 percent.

For beginners, I suggest that you focus on low- to moderate-risk stocks. These are the stocks that have a historical volatility score that’s not higher than 70 percent.

The upward-moving price is still not yet confirmed very strong. I estimate that ADX will only go above 25 points once the price breaks above 39.50. By that time, the distance between the +DMI and the -DMI should be significant already.

Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: 36.70
VWAP: 36.02713931
Most Traded: 36.1 – 36.25
Most Voluminous: 36 – 36

The last candlestick is green. The last price is higher than the VWAP. The last volume bar is green and it’s higher than the 50 percent of SMPH’s 10-day volume average. The dominant range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low. All-in-all, that gives me a bullish Momentum Power Indicator.

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of SMPH as of Sep-24-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 36.700.
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 36.2508
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 36.1993
Bonus Info:
2 out of 63 participants or 3.17% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
24 out of 63 participants or 38.10% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

I see a bit of hesitation among the top 10 brokers of SMPH today. They’re hesitant on what? They’re quite hesitant to buy closer to 36.70, which is the peak of the immediate resistance. Psychologically, this is a normal behavior of traders whenever the price is inching closer to the resistance. They want to see other traders to take the initiative to break the resistance. Other traders’ confidence to break the resistance with a significant volume is other traders’ confirmation of the strength of the stock’s upward momentum.

Recommendations

If you have SMPH and if your trailing stop loss has not been hit, it’s either you hold your position or top up within the dominant range. If SMPH will start tomorrow at a price lower or higher than the dominant range above, please request for this stock’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts in our Private Clients Forum (not via email or Facebook). My team and I will give you an update on whether our technical buy signals are still intact then.

If you do not have a position on SMPH yet but you’re planning to do a test-buy, realize that you already have the technical buy signals. All you have to do now is calculate your reward-to-risk ratio. If you’re satisfied with your reward-to-risk ratio, that’s the time that you should do a test-buy within the dominant range.

If you attended my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar, please review the online handouts I sent you. Review all six lessons. It’s your blueprint. I should not sound like an alien to you anymore by now.

If you’re a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics, please take advantage of your access to our Private Clients Forum. SMPH is one of the 30 index stocks that we monitor as trading happens for long-term investors. Refer to the INVESTORS tab on your account. We update our investment guide for long-term investors 4 times a day unlike the other service providers who only update their guides every end of day.

At Equilyst Analytics, we’re purely data and technical analysis.

Do you find this freemium analysis informative? Why don’t you at least say “hi” to me in the comments section of this post and tell me how my free analyses have helped you since the day you’ve stumbled upon this website? I’d love to hear from people who are reading my freemium stuff. 🙂

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

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