Latest posts by Jaycee De Guzman (see all)
Doubledragon Properties Corp (DD) is still inside the bearish channel since it registered its all-time high in the first week of June 2016. On the other hand, it’s bullish if the basis is the simple moving average for the past 20 trading days.
If DD closed on its intraday high of 42.10, I would have considered it to have semi-exited the long-term bearish channel. If that happened, the re-positioning of the longer-term SMAs below the shorter-term SMAs would be the one that will validate the re-entry of DD inside the long-term bullish territory.
But let’s stop wishing and start analyzing what is in front of us at the moment.
DD must maintain its position above the immediate support near 33 with a huge volume for it to increase the probability of breaking out AND closing above the immediate resistance near 36.60 as a precursor to major resistance near 40.
If DD won’t sustain the bullishness it showed today and it starts drawing closer to 33 again, then, wait for it till it draws closer to 30.
If you’re only comparing yesterday’s closing price with today’s, I suggest you also check the intraday chart of DD. I have picked the 5-minute chart. DD started strong but its intraday chart shows it painted a downtrend channel from opening until closing.
You need to consider this as well instead of brainwashing yourself that DD knows no other way but up till kingdom come. This kind of mentality is common to one-hit wonders, especially the beginners.
Let me make myself clear. When I advised you to CONSIDER the trend that you see on DD’s 5-minute chart, I am advising you to be CAUTIOUS only. I am not implying that DD will CERTAINLY go down again tomorrow.
As of March 13, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume is 351.04% of the previous trading day.
Remember these equations below.
- bullish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
- bullish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)
- bearish price + high volume = high sustainability (price)
- bearish price + low volume = low sustainability (price)
On a 30-day trading period, DD is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP47,353,850.00. This is another thing you need to consider before you decide to enter a new position, add more shares, or cut your loss.
Now, there’s no need for me to pull out the intraday chart of any stock because I have my Price-Volume Distribution calculator. See, even if DD started strong and closed in green, the majority of the volume on my PVD chart is positioned to the lower half of the chart. When I see that, I already knew that the stock just started strong.
UBS is the most aggressive net seller among the top 10 players for the past two months of trading. Notice how close its selling average to DD’s closing price.
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Jan-16-2018 to Mar-13-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 16 out of 107 participants or 14.95% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 7 out of 107 participants or 6.54% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 36.0484
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 36.6703
For March MTD, Deutsche and BA Securities have joined UBS as the most aggressive net sellers. Unfortunately, I do not see aggressiveness on the side of the net buyers.
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-01-2018 to Mar-13-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 13 out of 94 participants or 13.83% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 5 out of 94 participants or 5.32% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 34.9948
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 35.7306
Okay, let me stop transcribing for you what you can also read or see on the chart below. Look at my week-to-date Top 10 Players chart below. Do you see those three brokers with 100% selling activity?
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Mar-12-2018 to Mar-13-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 12 out of 85 participants or 14.12% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 7 out of 85 participants or 8.24% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 36.0103
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 36.2157
Who are the three brokers below with the most aggressive selling stance? Check their selling average.
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Mar-13-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 15 out of 85 participants or 17.65% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 10 out of 85 participants or 11.76% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 38.2009
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 38.0816
DD is now a high-risk stock based on my Risk Level calculator.
What is my recommendation?
The moment the price of the stock closes above the 10-day SMA and MACD crossed above the signal line, try to buy in tranches just in case you didn’t arrive in a high-conviction trade setup when you calculated your reward-to-risk ratio.
If you are following my 10SMA-MACD combo, you should not forget to use a trailing stop-loss instead of a full stop-loss. There are links on this last portion of my analysis. Click the links and read the articles so you can relate to what I have recommended you to do.
For example, DD passed my 10SMA-MACD combo. If you followed this simple combo, you would have already entered a position on DD yesterday and your trailing stop-loss is already there preserving your capital, protecting your gains, and preventing losses that are bigger than your risk tolerance.
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