Trade $NOW, $LATER, or $NEVER?

0
422
Stock Analysis - JayceeDeGuzman.com

Plotting a weekly or monthly chart of NOW CORPORATION ($NOW), you’ll see that traders respected and set the support at 0.59/0.63 as a strong support. It was tested thrice in the second half of January 2016. Didn’t that register in your thought process that it was a potential sign of a trend reversal?

Unlike my other stock readings where I mentioned an increasing volume on certain stocks, you won’t a clue on how $NOW formed an upward momentum by its volume but by its price trend only (exclusive of today’s volume). When I’m unsure with my conviction, I only test-buy. When price action invalidates my conservative stance, I buy in tranches, especially when and while the stock is below or close to the mid-point of my trading range. The bottom line is, I consult my reward-to-risk ratio.

For more information about this reward-to-risk ratio, you may want to read: How to Use the Stock Signals’ Reward-to-Risk Ratio Calculator?

Here’s how I was watching $NOW. I’ll leave the chart here. No textual explanation; just chart. If you’re my client and you’d like to know more about my trading range for this stock, please proceed to the dungeon (I mean, private forum). I don’t publish ready-to-execute, money-making ideas in public.

NOW CORPORATION (NOW) - 02.01.2016

If you can’t find a clue from the volume, you may also check the Buy and Sell Averages of the top 10 players of the stock. Take a look at the Buy Average of these top 10 players of $NOW for the month of January 2016. Did you notice something about the Buy and Sell Averages of the top 3 players of $NOW?

Oh, one more, I also want you to notice the semi-steady historical volatility of $NOW despite the low volume. You’ll see that Volatility Chart on the last part of this post. If you have any question about the relevance or significance of this when I trade, please ask me in our private forum.

Okay, I’ll stop talking here or I might spill some magic beans.

NOW - 10 Brokers with the Highest Total Turnover Value (PHP) from Jan-04-2016 to Jan-29-2016

Foreign investors are not active in $NOW. That heavy Net Foreign Selling last October 2015 affected $NOW’s 4Q2015’s foreign flow. However, it looks like the constructive stance, in terms of foreign flow, since November 2015 has continued. See the quarterly, monthly, and yearly foreign flows of $NOW below.

NOW CORPORATION (NOW) - 02.01.2016 - Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly Foreign Flow

As of February 1, 2016, at 12:00PM GMT+8, NOW ranged between PHP0.65 and PHP0.78.
NOW’s last price is PHP0.78 with a Percentage Change of 21.88% or PHP0.14.

MACD, at -0.02, shows that bias is still on the downside.
MACD is trending below the signal line.

RSI, at 63.86, shows that NOW is neither oversold nor overbought.

Stochastic, at 63.59, shows that NOW is neither oversold nor overbought.

NOW moves above its 5-day EMA. That signifies bullishness on a short-term range.

With a volatility of 97.65% and with its last price of 0.78, NOW has:
= 68% chance of ranging between 0.02 to 1.54, and 32% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 95% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 2.30, and 5% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months; OR
= 99% chance of ranging between 0.00 to 3.06, and 1% chance of ranging outside that range after 12 months.

Note: These 68%, 95%, and 99% are constant percentages of probabilities that a price range might be hit after 12 months based on one standard deviation, two standard deviations, and three standard deviations, respectively. Be informed that we’re talking about possibilities and not certainties since implied volatility is not an exact science. While implied volatility helps you get a forecast of a stock’s possible price range after a certain time period, it doesn’t tell you the exact direction (trend) of the stock from here on until the end of the specified time period.

As of February 1, 2016, at 12:00PM GMT+8, volume is 773.52% of the previous trading day.
Total Trade Amount on February 01, 2016 as of 12:57:02 PM: PHP18,617,720.00

All brokers’ buy average as of February 01, 2016: PHP0.72
All brokers’ buy average as of February 01, 2016: PHP0.72

Note: Below are FOREIGN BROKERS’ numbers only. There’s a separate chart where you’ll find FOREIGN INVESTORS’ Net Foreign Buying or Selling.

As of February 01, 2016, 3 out of 11 active online foreign brokers traded NOW.
Online foreign brokers’ Buy Average: PHP0.75
Online foreign brokers’ Sell Average: PHP0.75
Number of net buyers among the participating online foreign brokers: 2 out of 3
HDI bought the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP891,720.00
HDI sold the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP660,400.00

On a 30-day trading period, NOW is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP1,918,620.00.

NOW CORPORATION (NOW) - 02.01.2016 Charts

Jaycee De Guzman

Jaycee Silverio de Guzman is a computer scientist by profession. He is the founder and CEO of iPresence Digital Marketing, Inc. and Equilyst Analytics, Inc. He is a husband and a father.
Jaycee De Guzman

Latest posts by Jaycee De Guzman (see all)

Do you have a comment?

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.